The May 2025 India-Pakistan escalation that lasted for four days claimed about fifty lives. On the other hand, if the number of casualties caused by torrential weather since June 26 is calculated, then on average, about 52 people have died every four days during the ongoing monsoon period. Not to forget, this is a cautious figure, and the actual death toll may be higher.
Admittedly, the year 2025 brought many challenges for Pakistan; traditional and non-traditional. From fatal Baluchistan train hijacking and hailstorms to war with India and the recent floods in most parts of the country, Pakistan has endured it all. While the traditional threats stem from external factors or actors, non-traditional security threats are mostly the product of internal neglect.
While no state can prevent rainfall, much of the ensuing tragedy stems from long term planning lapses. It has been three years since the catastrophic super floods of 2022, preceded by the 2014 floods and the deadly 2010 deluge; the worst in Pakistan’s history which devastated nearly half the country. These disasters should have been a wake-up call, prompting measures to avert or mitigate such weather-driven events in the future. Encroachments on the river bed and poor urban planning, for instance, have been a recurring theme in water-related natural catastrophes, known to exacerbate the damage, yet little has changed in policy and its implementation to curb them.
In Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, which bore the heaviest brunt of the deluge and floods with over 400 casualties, damage was amplified due to deforestation. It triggered landslides and washed sediment into rivers, making floods more destructive while silting up waterways. It also caused runoff to move faster and more violently, concentrating into torrents that struck low-lying areas with greater intensity. Similarly, housing societies in the Islamabad were also flooded during intense rainfall as the water’s natural gradient was obstructed by narrowing, or encroaching upon the natural water channels, resulting in urban flooding.
Moreover, while Pakistan possesses weather observation satellites, its ability to translate data into timely and actionable warnings remains limited. Even when data is available, weaknesses in processing, coordination, and dissemination delay alerts, reducing their effectiveness. At the same time, the absence of clear guidelines and community-level communication channels means that warnings often fail to reach those most at risk. These systemic shortcomings in both technology and governance leave Pakistan persistently exposed to natural calamities
It is sobering to realise that the threat persists even after the floods recede, leaving lasting impacts on affected populations. As seen after the 2022 disaster, stagnant flood waters caused disease outbreaks, displacement of over 8 million people, loss of assets and household incomes, and rising food prices, culminating in spiking the national poverty rate. Although the recent floods are not as extreme as in 2022, they will act as a successive shock, creating layered vulnerabilities, with each calamity intensifying the impact of the last. It can be argued that Pakistan is facing a compounded crisis, as floods struck again before recovery from the previous one was complete.
The inter-event interval for Pakistan’s mega-floods has compressed from approximately 12 years (2010 to 2022) to 3 years (2022 to 2025). This warrants consideration as it indicates a non-stationary flood regime. Consecutive and closely spaced floods reflect compound risk not only driven by climate change, melting glaciers, GLOF and extreme weather patterns but also weak response mechanisms, poor land-use planning and weak governance frameworks.
Despite escalating flood risks, the 2025-26 federal budget slashes disaster preparedness funding by nearly 30 per cent, shifting resources toward reactive measures such as response and recovery. In the midst of consecutive mega floods (2022 to 2025), this reversal signals a troubling disregard for proactive resilience. Critical components of flood-prone governance are underfunded at precisely the moment they are needed most. Scaling down preparedness allocation undermines resilience and perpetuates a reactive model of disaster management, where response is given precedence over prevention.
The IMF’s recent approval of climate resilience financing for Pakistan under the Resilience and Sustainability Facility highlights that international institutions now recognise environmental shocks as core security threats. For Pakistan, this should be a wake-up call to recalibrate security priorities in line with both climate and defence imperatives. Rethinking security priorities and placing the non-traditional security threat at equal importance with the traditional ones is the need of the time. Climate change is an unrelenting reality that will lead to an unbroken chain of escalating disasters in the future. While complete elimination of this risk is not possible, robust preparedness, response strategies and elevating climate to a national priority can control the extent of nature’s onslaught to an adequate extent.
Saba Abbasi is a Research Assistant at the Centre for Aerospace & Security Studies (CASS), Islamabad, Pakistan. She can be reached at [email protected]
