The next General Elections in India are planned in April-May 2024. Going by the past practices, the BJP government is expected to draw domestic political mileage by playing the security card. Pakistan is likely to be the target of Indian diplomatic and media onslaught. India is also expected to venture into a limited military operation to up the ante and incite anti-Pakistan sentiments which can be effectively translated into the BJP’s electoral gains. Recent provocative statements by Indian leaders, notably by the Defence Minister are prelude to such actions. This seminar aimed to discuss the challenges to regional security in the wake of Indian actions in the diplomatic, media and military domains during the run-up to the elections.
The moderator Air Marshal Farooq Habib (Retd), Senior Director at CASS, in his opening address set the stage for the proceedings and highlighted the challenges Pakistan historically faced due to its proximity to India, accentuated by her hegemonic aspirations. He argued that the BJP’s unbridled ambition to win elections has emerged as the most significant factor in India’s relationship with Pakistan as it invariably counts on invoking anti-Pakistan sentiments domestically to gain electoral victory. He cited past incidents, including the Mumbai attack and the Pulwama, as examples where such strategies provoked anti-Pakistan feelings benefitting incumbent Indian governments. He also commented on recent belligerent remarks from Indian leaders and warned of potential escalatory measures in diplomatic, media and military spheres. While stressing the need for timely response he argued that Pakistan’s response must be reflective of the past experiences, current realities and future contingencies.
Speaking on ‘Indian Electoral Politics: Implications for Diplomacy and Options for Pakistan’, Ambassador Ashraf Jehangir Qazi discussed Prime Minister Modi’s anticipated approach towards the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, while agreeing that he would certainly leverage the security narrative against Pakistan. Ambassador Qazi noted past instances where Pakistan was blamed for attacks in Indian Illegally Occupied Jammu & Kashmir (IIOJ&K) region, predicting that such tactics were likely to be amplified in the run-up to the elections. He further predicted attempts by India to exploit internal issues in regions like Gilgit-Baltistan. Reflecting on global reactions, he highlighted the lack of support from the Western political and security community for Pakistan, particularly post-Pulwama, Balakot, and the annexation of IIOJ&K, attributing it to India’s burgeoning reputation as an ascending global power. Delineating Pakistan’s strategic options, Ambassador Qazi argued that proactive diplomacy alone would not be sufficient to counter Indian escalations. He contended that international apathy to India’s alleged exploitation of the security narrative for electoral mileage would persist unless Pakistan focused on internal governance reforms.
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The US-Israel War on Iran: Objectives, Strategy, and Escalation Management
Zahra Niazi
‘States tend to overestimate themselves or the benefits and swiftness of war, and to underestimate their opponents’ capabilities, intentions, or the costs and duration of war.’ If anything, the 2026 war initiated by the United States and Israel against Iran shall be remembered in the annals of warfare among the most visible manifestations of this dynamic.
The war, immediately preceded by the January mass protests in Iran, did not represent a sudden rupture but rather the continuation of a 47-year-long confrontation and a more intense phase of the June 2025 war.
The US Secretary of War, Pete Hegseth, defined the war’s objectives as being laser-focused: to destroy Iran’s missile capabilities and its security infrastructure, while ensuring that it could never develop nuclear weapons. Beyond these stated objectives, among the priorities on the continuum also lay the objective of regime change, with both President Trump and Prime Minister Netanyahu explicitly calling on the Iranian population to take over the government at the outset of the war.
Marka-e-Haq to the Peace Talks: Pakistan’s Middle Power Status
On 7th May 2025, Pakistan’s military forces took the international security community by surprise when it demonstrated operational superiority against its larger belligerent adversary India with its rapid and coordinated response. The Four-Day conflict proved to be a watershed moment for Pakistan, marking its rapid emergence as an important player in the region. In recent years, amidst the ongoing global competition between the United States and China, Islamabad has adopted a position of ’Strategic Balancing,’ where it maintains ties of cooperation with both Beijing and Washington. Deft diplomacy, emphasis on geo-economics, and credible conventional and strategic deterrence have remained the foundational pillars for Pakistan’s ambition as a rising middle power
Debunking the S-400 Shield: Lessons from the India-Pakistan Conflict
Air defense has always been a central aspect of warfare. In South Asia, the phenomenon carries immense significance due to compressed reaction times. In this context, one of the most-hyped systems is the Russian-made S-400, touted by New Delhi as a one-stop solution to counter aerial threats from both Pakistan and China.
The 2025 conflict between India and Pakistan marked an important chapter in testing the S-400 technology. The conflict began on May 7, when India attacked what it alleged were terrorist targets in both Pakistani-held Kashmir and Pakistan proper, using drone and missile strikes. The conflict lasted for four days, culminating in a U.S-facilitated ceasefire. However, the brief conflict debunked a lot of the myths regarding the S-400 technology.
First, India claimed that the mobile S-400 would be able to control Pakistan’s airspace. In contrast, Pakistani aircraft continued to operate freely, according to official briefings by the Pakistani military. Although the Pakistan Air Force (PAF) aircraft were in their own airspace, they were still within the air defense range.
