The year 2025 has dramatically reshaped global and regional geopolitics through a series of crises: the India–Pakistan war, the Israel–Iran confrontation, and renewed instability on the Pakistan–Afghanistan border. These events have exposed deep fractures in the international order, most notably the sharp deterioration in India–United States relations due to trade disputes, India’s ties with Russia, and differing assessments of the recent Indo-Pak conflict. This rift has created limited but significant diplomatic openings for Pakistan to re-engage Washington, while deepening partnerships with China and key regional players such as Saudi Arabia.
At the same time, the Israel–Iran war and persistent cross-border challenges with Afghanistan have complicated Pakistan’s security environment, forcing Islamabad to navigate intersecting great-power rivalries and regional fault lines with greater agility.
In this fluid landscape, emerging geopolitical alliances present both risks of entanglement and opportunities for strategic repositioning. The Catalyst Conversation, ‘Emerging Geopolitical Alliances and Implications for Pakistan,’ brought together practitioners to examine these shifting alignments, assess their impact on Pakistan’s security and foreign policy, and identify balanced, forward-looking strategies to safeguard national interests in an era of uncertainty and renewed possibilities.
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The US-Israel War on Iran: Objectives, Strategy, and Escalation Management
Zahra Niazi
‘States tend to overestimate themselves or the benefits and swiftness of war, and to underestimate their opponents’ capabilities, intentions, or the costs and duration of war.’ If anything, the 2026 war initiated by the United States and Israel against Iran shall be remembered in the annals of warfare among the most visible manifestations of this dynamic.
The war, immediately preceded by the January mass protests in Iran, did not represent a sudden rupture but rather the continuation of a 47-year-long confrontation and a more intense phase of the June 2025 war.
The US Secretary of War, Pete Hegseth, defined the war’s objectives as being laser-focused: to destroy Iran’s missile capabilities and its security infrastructure, while ensuring that it could never develop nuclear weapons. Beyond these stated objectives, among the priorities on the continuum also lay the objective of regime change, with both President Trump and Prime Minister Netanyahu explicitly calling on the Iranian population to take over the government at the outset of the war.
Marka-e-Haq to the Peace Talks: Pakistan’s Middle Power Status
On 7th May 2025, Pakistan’s military forces took the international security community by surprise when it demonstrated operational superiority against its larger belligerent adversary India with its rapid and coordinated response. The Four-Day conflict proved to be a watershed moment for Pakistan, marking its rapid emergence as an important player in the region. In recent years, amidst the ongoing global competition between the United States and China, Islamabad has adopted a position of ’Strategic Balancing,’ where it maintains ties of cooperation with both Beijing and Washington. Deft diplomacy, emphasis on geo-economics, and credible conventional and strategic deterrence have remained the foundational pillars for Pakistan’s ambition as a rising middle power
Debunking the S-400 Shield: Lessons from the India-Pakistan Conflict
Air defense has always been a central aspect of warfare. In South Asia, the phenomenon carries immense significance due to compressed reaction times. In this context, one of the most-hyped systems is the Russian-made S-400, touted by New Delhi as a one-stop solution to counter aerial threats from both Pakistan and China.
The 2025 conflict between India and Pakistan marked an important chapter in testing the S-400 technology. The conflict began on May 7, when India attacked what it alleged were terrorist targets in both Pakistani-held Kashmir and Pakistan proper, using drone and missile strikes. The conflict lasted for four days, culminating in a U.S-facilitated ceasefire. However, the brief conflict debunked a lot of the myths regarding the S-400 technology.
First, India claimed that the mobile S-400 would be able to control Pakistan’s airspace. In contrast, Pakistani aircraft continued to operate freely, according to official briefings by the Pakistani military. Although the Pakistan Air Force (PAF) aircraft were in their own airspace, they were still within the air defense range.
