Following the landslide victory of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in the 2019 Indian General Elections, the government led by Narendra Modi swiftly announced revocation of the special status of Jammu & Kashmir by repealing Articles 370 and 35A of the Indian Constitution on 5 August 2019. More than five years on, the Muslim majority of Indian Illegally Occupied Jammu and Kashmir (IIOJK) continues to be marginalised in every domain of their lives. They remain subjected to the worst kind of exploitation and repression, while being disenfranchised in the land of their ancestors. Regrettably, the world, at large, remains a spectator of this tragedy. To take stock of the current situation in IIOJK, and deliberate possible remedial measures, CASS organised a special lecture as part of its Catalyst Conversations Series on 7 August 2024 titled ‘Chinars in Chains: India’s Siege of Jammu and Kashmir’. The lecture aimed to explore the socio-political impacts of abrogating Articles 370 and 35A in IIOJK, assess India’s strategic objectives and Kashmiri responses, and deliberate on internationalising the Jammu & Kashmir dispute. It also sought to analyse Pakistan’s options, role of digital narratives in shaping international perceptions, and influence of non-traditional diplomatic channels on the Jammu and Kashmir conflict. The distinguished subject matter expert was Mr Altaf Hussain Wani, Chairman, Kashmir Institute of International Relations (KIIR). The ‘Catalyst Conversation’ was moderated by Air Marshal Farooq Habib (Retd), Senior Director at CASS with concluding remarks by President of CASS, Islamabad Air Marshal Javaid Ahmed (Retd).
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The Cover-up: IAF Narrative of the May 2025 Air Battle
Even after one year since the India-Pakistan May war of 2025, the Indian discourse regarding Operation Sindoor remains uncertain under its pretence of restraint. The Pahalgam attack on 22 April, which killed 26 people, triggered an escalatory spiral. New Delhi quickly accused Pakistan-linked elements, while Islamabad refuted the allegation and demanded an independent investigation. On 7 May, India launched attacks deep inside Pakistan under what it later termed as Operation Sindoor. The political motive was intended to turn the crisis into coercive signalling by shifting the blame onto the enemy and projecting a sense of military superiority.
This episode, however, began to fray immediately as war seldom follows the intended script. Within minutes PAF shot down 7 IAF aircraft including 4 Rafales. On 8 May, Reuters reported that at least two Indian aircraft were shot down by a Pakistani J-10C, while the local government sources reported other aircraft crashes in Indian-occupied Jammu and Kashmir
Why the IAF’s Post-Sindoor Spending Surge is a Sign of Panic
After Operation Sindoor, India is spending billions of dollars on new weapons. This is being taken by many people as an indication of military prowess. It is not. This rush to procure weapons is in fact an acknowledgement that the Air Force in India had failed to do what it was meant to do. The costly jets and missiles that India had purchased over the years failed to yield the promised results.
Sindoor was soon followed by India in sealing the gaps which the operation had exposed. It was reported that Indian Air Force (IAF) is looking to speed up its purchases of more than 7 billion USD. This will involve other Rafale fighter jets with India already ordering 26 more Rafales to the Navy in 2024 at an estimated cost of about 3.9 billion USD. India is also seeking long-range standoff missiles, Israeli loitering munitions and increased drone capabilities. Special financial powers of the Indian military were activated to issue emergency procurement orders. The magnitude and rate of these purchases speak volumes.
Indian media and defence analysts have over the years considered the Rafale as a game changer. When India purchased 36 Rafales aircrafts at an approximate cost of 8.7 billion USD, analysts vowed that the aircraft would provide India with air superiority over Pakistan. Operation Sindoor disproved all those allegations. Indian aircraft did not even fly in Pakistani airspace when the fighting started. India solely depended on standoff weapons that were launched at a safe distance. The air defence system of Pakistan, comprising of the HQ-9 surface-to-air missile system and its own fighters, stood its ground.
May 2025: Mosaic Warfare and the Myth of Centralised Air Power
Visualise a modern-day Air Force commander sitting in the operations room, miles away from the combat zone, overseeing every friendly and enemy aircraft and all assets involved in the campaign. In a split second, he can task a fighter, reposition a drone, and authorise a strike. In today’s promising technological era, he does not even need an operations room; a laptop on his desktop will suffice. The situation looks promising as it offers efficiency, precision, and control. The term used for such operational control is ‘centralisation’, which has been made possible with advanced networking, integrating space, cyber, surveillance, artificial intelligence, and seamless communication, enabling a single commander to manage an entire campaign from a single node. Centralised command and control, championed by the Western air forces and then adopted by many others, has thus been seen as a pinnacle of modern military power.
The concept of centralisation, enabled by state-of-the-art networking, may seem promising, but it is nothing more than a myth.
