Air defence has always been a critical aspect of airpower. Modern technologies have led to multi-pronged challenges for air defence systems (ADS). In this context, saturation warfare, characterised by the mass deployment of aerial assets, has a notable significance. It marks an important shift in the protection of airspace. The paper discusses saturation warfare and the corresponding vulnerabilities of existing ADS. The research is qualitative and uses a case-study method. By shedding light on three recent cases: Hamas’ attack on Israel, Iran’s attack on Israel and Russia’s attack on Ukraine, the paper aims to study the effectiveness of contemporary ADS and their potential impact on future security dynamics. The case studies reveal increasing vulnerability to ADS, which requires a coordinated response to mitigate the existing challenges. Building upon the case studies and air defence mechanisms, the paper highlights notable trends in air defence. Recent trends suggest that states must remain cognisant of the vulnerabilities of air defence systems. Hence, effective defence measures should be employed by states against potential saturation attacks in the future. On the regional front, the paper examines the case of South Asia, with a focus on India and Pakistan. The paper concludes with policy recommendations for states and militaries regarding strengthening existing air defence.
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‘States tend to overestimate themselves or the benefits and swiftness of war, and to underestimate their opponents’ capabilities, intentions, or the costs and duration of war.’ If anything, the 2026 war initiated by the United States and Israel against Iran shall be remembered in the annals of warfare among the most visible manifestations of this dynamic.
The war, immediately preceded by the January mass protests in Iran, did not represent a sudden rupture but rather the continuation of a 47-year-long confrontation and a more intense phase of the June 2025 war.
The US Secretary of War, Pete Hegseth, defined the war’s objectives as being laser-focused: to destroy Iran’s missile capabilities and its security infrastructure, while ensuring that it could never develop nuclear weapons. Beyond these stated objectives, among the priorities on the continuum also lay the objective of regime change, with both President Trump and Prime Minister Netanyahu explicitly calling on the Iranian population to take over the government at the outset of the war.
