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Climate change is a pressing global issue with far-reaching impacts on the environment and human societies. According to the Global Climate Risk Index 2021, Pakistan is ranked the 8th most vulnerable country despite its low carbon emissions of less than 1%.

Pakistan’s vulnerability is driven by its geographic location, socioeconomic conditions, and institutional capacity. The country is home to nearly 7000 glaciers which cover about 13% of its land. Melting glaciers, due to high temperatures, has caused a substantial reduction of ice mass by 36% since 1997 leading to devastating consequences, including floods and landslides, reduced water availability and loss of biodiversity and ecosystem services. Temperature rise also alters precipitation patterns, leading to irregular rainfall which impacts agriculture, accessibility to water resources and intensifies the possibility of flooding as well as drought events. Moreover, Pakistan’s coastal regions are extremely susceptible to sea-level rise, storm surges, and erosion. The increased water levels threaten human settlements, fisheries, and ecosystems while worsening financial difficulties and food insecurity in these localities.

These pressing challenges pose significant threats to Pakistan’s economy, energy supply, food security, water availability, and the well-being of millions of individuals, thereby impacting every facet of human and national security. The gravity of the situation necessitates urgent attention and the formulation of a comprehensive plan for adaptation and mitigation. Swift action is imperative to address these issues effectively and safeguard the nation’s socioeconomic stability, environmental sustainability, and the overall welfare of its populace.

In this regard, the Centre of Aerospace & Security Studies (CASS), Islamabad, organised a Distinguished Guest Lecture featuring a renowned scholar who possesses extensive expertise in the field of climate change and related subjects. This scholar brings a wealth of experience gained through practical work, teaching, and scholarly contributions, making their insights invaluable in addressing the complexities of climate change and its associated challenges.



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The Cover-up: IAF Narrative of the May 2025 Air Battle

Even after one year since the India-Pakistan May war of 2025, the Indian discourse regarding Operation Sindoor remains uncertain under its pretence of restraint. The Pahalgam attack on 22 April, which killed 26 people, triggered an escalatory spiral. New Delhi quickly accused Pakistan-linked elements, while Islamabad refuted the allegation and demanded an independent investigation. On 7 May, India launched attacks deep inside Pakistan under what it later termed as Operation Sindoor. The political motive was intended to turn the crisis into coercive signalling by shifting the blame onto the enemy and projecting a sense of military superiority.
This episode, however, began to fray immediately as war seldom follows the intended script. Within minutes PAF shot down 7 IAF aircraft including 4 Rafales. On 8 May, Reuters reported that at least two Indian aircraft were shot down by a Pakistani J-10C, while the local government sources reported other aircraft crashes in Indian-occupied Jammu and Kashmir

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Why the IAF’s Post-Sindoor Spending Surge is a Sign of Panic

After Operation Sindoor, India is spending billions of dollars on new weapons. This is being taken by many people as an indication of military prowess. It is not. This rush to procure weapons is in fact an acknowledgement that the Air Force in India had failed to do what it was meant to do. The costly jets and missiles that India had purchased over the years failed to yield the promised results.

Sindoor was soon followed by India in sealing the gaps which the operation had exposed. It was reported that Indian Air Force (IAF) is looking to speed up its purchases of more than 7 billion USD. This will involve other Rafale fighter jets with India already ordering 26 more Rafales to the Navy in 2024 at an estimated cost of about 3.9 billion USD. India is also seeking long-range standoff missiles, Israeli loitering munitions and increased drone capabilities. Special financial powers of the Indian military were activated to issue emergency procurement orders. The magnitude and rate of these purchases speak volumes.

Indian media and defence analysts have over the years considered the Rafale as a game changer. When India purchased 36 Rafales aircrafts at an approximate cost of 8.7 billion USD, analysts vowed that the aircraft would provide India with air superiority over Pakistan. Operation Sindoor disproved all those allegations. Indian aircraft did not even fly in Pakistani airspace when the fighting started. India solely depended on standoff weapons that were launched at a safe distance. The air defence system of Pakistan, comprising of the HQ-9 surface-to-air missile system and its own fighters, stood its ground.

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May 2025: Mosaic Warfare and the Myth of Centralised Air Power

Visualise a modern-day Air Force commander sitting in the operations room, miles away from the combat zone, overseeing every friendly and enemy aircraft and all assets involved in the campaign. In a split second, he can task a fighter, reposition a drone, and authorise a strike. In today’s promising technological era, he does not even need an operations room; a laptop on his desktop will suffice. The situation looks promising as it offers efficiency, precision, and control. The term used for such operational control is ‘centralisation’, which has been made possible with advanced networking, integrating space, cyber, surveillance, artificial intelligence, and seamless communication, enabling a single commander to manage an entire campaign from a single node. Centralised command and control, championed by the Western air forces and then adopted by many others, has thus been seen as a pinnacle of modern military power.
The concept of centralisation, enabled by state-of-the-art networking, may seem promising, but it is nothing more than a myth.

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