Forecasting the Economic Impact of Coronavirus on Developing Countries: Case of Pakistan

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Forecasting the Economic Impact of Coronavirus on Developing Countries: Case of Pakistan

The Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic has already wreaked havoc on the international economy in numerous ways, differentiating itself in particular through its impact on the “real world” economy as opposed to financial market-specific damage. Both developed and developing countries are seeking to grapple with the pandemic, and all face limitations in their resource capacities; with the shortfall being more acute in the developing world. The aim of this working paper is to present some limited forecasting through scenario analysis using an aggregate demand approach for Pakistan, so as to illustrate the possible multidurational economic impacts from the COVID-19 pandemic. The findings suggest that, FY20 declines will be massive, but faster global and local recovery rates might spur a resumption of economic activity in FY21.

Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3563616

Suggested Citation:

Chohan, Usman W., Forecasting the Economic Impact of Coronavirus on Developing Countries: Case of Pakistan (March 28, 2020). CASS Working Papers on Economics & National Affairs, Working Paper ID: EC016UC (2020).

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Tags: COVID, Economic Affairs & National Development
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Dr Usman W. Chohan

Dr. Usman W. Chohan is an international economist and academic who was one of the founding Directors of CASS, now serving as Advisor to President CASS on Economic Affairs & National Development. He is among the Top 100 Authors across all subjects & disciplines (out of 1.2 million authors) on the Social Science Research Network (SSRN), which is the largest open repository of knowledge in the world. At CASS, he has authored six books in the past five years: (1) Public Value & Budgeting: International Perspectives, (2) Reimagining Public Managers: Delivering Public Value, (3) Public Value and the Digital Economy, (4) Pandemics and Public Value Management, (5) Activist Retail Investors and the Future of Financial Markets (co-edited), and (6) Public Value and the Post-Pandemic Society, all published with Routledge. In the academic realm, his research has been cited widely, and Dr. Chohan has testified before various authorities based on his technical expertise. Dr. Chohan has a PhD in economics from UNSW Australia, where his doctoral work led to the world’s first multidisciplinary synthesis of independent legislative fiscal institutions, and an MBA from McGill University (Canada), with coursework at MIT-Tsinghua. His previous practitioner experience includes working at the National Bank of Canada and the World Bank. He is also the President of the International Association of Hyperpolyglots (HYPIA), the leading organization worldwide for hyperpolyglotism and whose membership consists of the speakers of six or more languages. He appears frequently on domestic and international television, podcasts, and lecture series in various languages. He is also trained in South Asian musicology and plays the sitar. In addition, Dr. Chohan has maintained an annual reading challenge of 100 books every year since 2011. Dr. Chohan’s forthcoming seventh and eighth books are titled Non-Fungible Tokens (NFTs): Multidisciplinary Perspectives (edited), and Decentralized Autonomous Organizations (DAOs): Innovation and Vulnerability in the Digital Economy (co-edited).