The May 2025 India-Pakistan war played a pivotal role in eroding India’s long-standing notion of conventional superiority. Seven months ahead, the echoes of the conflict continue to shape military choices. The post-crisis environment shows predictable trends, marked by sabre-rattling via hawkish statements by the civil and military leadership, followed by military procurements. Most recently, India has signalled a mega aircraft deal, with the announcement of the induction of 114 Rafales.
In the brief yet intense conflict, the downing of seven aircraft, including four Rafales by the Pakistan Air Force (PAF) was one of the most prominent features of the conflict. This operational fiasco has created a glaring gap that India seeks to fill. The Rafale aircraft were branded as a game-changing technology following the scandalous induction of the first batch back in 2020. However, battlefield outcomes have negated this perception, leading to new insecurities. These insecurities are visible at both global and domestic levels.
On the global stage, India always crafts a narrative of a two-front war in its defence policies. This involves clubbing Pakistan and China together as a pretext for arms buildup. In this context, it is also important to note that the former aims for fifth-generation, while the latter seeks sixth-generation aircraft, respectively. In such a scenario, procurement of a 4.5 generation raises questions regarding the operational value of the deal, particularly after the aircraft’s performance in May 2025. Hence, it remains to be seen whether the deal is an interim measure to overshadow existing challenges. In order to meet its future requirements, India will need to induct more fighter squadrons. Hence, there is a possibility that the move might be a signalling moment for US and Russia vis-à-vis F-35 or Su-57 aircraft, enabling India to negotiate a better deal via reaching out to a third party. Likewise, India also desires to project itself as a rising military power in front of global players to downplay its prior losses. It wants to reassure its external partners, particularly those who view India as a counterweight and project strength in the region.
On the domestic front, the initiative is underpinned by a post-conflict insecurity in light of Pakistan’s befitting response. The insecurity stems from India’s inability to attain air superiority and escalation dominance once a confrontation unfolds with Pakistan, which enjoys a qualitative edge against a much larger foe. The event exposed operational and credibility gaps in the Indian airpower structure. Similarly, the loss of high-end aircraft in an engagement initiated by India itself also exposed the inherent weaknesses of the Indian Air Force (IAF). Resultantly, there is a sense of urgency to restore airpower credibility and manage internal debates. The deal is also framed to enhance local production and industrial participation. The deal incorporates 25-30 per cent local manufacturing, potential engine assembly, and long-term sustainment support within the country, making it part of the ‘Make in India’ initiative. Valued at approximately around USD 39 billion, the deal is one of the largest single fighter acquisitions in India’s history. The scale of the inductions aims to capture reassuring headlines and rush to visible fixes following the setbacks. In addition, persistent challenges in India’s indigenous fighter programs, characterised by slow progress and engine-linked challenges in its Tejas MKII and the Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA) programme, have put added pressure on the leadership. Hence, the deal provides a face-saving story for both political and military leadership.
In the present circumstances, military procurement vis-à-vis fleet expansion is a convenient option with impactful optics. Resultantly, this appears as a temporary measure rather than addressing the existing shortcomings or doctrinal reset with regard to command and control and cross-domain synchronisation.
The detailed framework of the deal will be finalised during French President Emanuel Macron’s upcoming visit to India, scheduled for February 2026. This recent deal follows India’s previous purchase, in which it also ordered 26 Rafale Marine carrier-based aircraft to enhance range and make a concentrated bet across different domains. Overall, it remains to be seen which capability India is eyeing via this deal.
In the regional context, the Indian approach is aligned with a risk-tolerant policy rather than restraint. The trends suggest that India is less inclined towards diplomatic engagement. This is a concerning development, particularly in situations where India reads numerical superiority as a leverage for escalation, leading to miscalculations.
Ultimately, the current Indian leadership prioritises immediate optics rather than foresight. There is disregard of the fact that a larger defence fleet does not automatically translate into victory or escalation dominance. As seen in the May episode, it is the ecosystem comprising doctrine, seamless employment, integration, training, use of electronic warfare, and decision-making, all synced into a coherent kill chain that defines outcomes in aerial engagements and offsets numerical superiority.
Despite these inductions, PAF continues to retain a first-shot capability, which was a vital component accounting for IAF’s unprecedented loses in the May 2025 war. Accordingly, the control of the air advantage, still rests with Pakistan forces, forestalling any future adventurous moves by Indian forces.
Shaza Arif is a Senior Research Associate at the Centre for Aerospace & Security Studies (CASS), Islamabad. The Article was first published by The News International. She can be reached at [email protected]
