Forecasting the Economic Impact of Coronavirus on Developing Countries: Case of Pakistan
Author Name: Dr Usman W. Chohan 31 Mar 2020 Domestic Economy

Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3563616
Abstract
The Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic has already wreaked havoc on the international economy in numerous ways, differentiating itself in particular through its impact on the “real world” economy as opposed to financial market-specific damage. Both developed and developing countries are seeking to grapple with the pandemic, and all face limitations in their resource capacities; with the shortfall being more acute in the developing world. The aim of this working paper is to present some limited forecasting through scenario analysis using an aggregate demand approach for Pakistan, so as to illustrate the possible multidurational economic impacts from the COVID-19 pandemic. The findings suggest that, FY20 declines will be massive, but faster global and local recovery rates might spur a resumption of economic activity in FY21.
Keywords: coronavirus, pandemic, COVID-19, developing country, expenditure, national income, GDP, macroeconomics.
Suggested Citation:
Chohan, Usman W., Forecasting the Economic Impact of Coronavirus on Developing Countries: Case of Pakistan (March 28, 2020). CASS Working Papers on Economics & National Affairs, Working Paper ID: EC016UC (2020).

Recent Articles
- Extractive Institutions & Post-Colonial Pakistan Read more
- Pakistan’s Tax Woes & the ‘Notch’ Issues Read more
- The Case for Cryptocurrencies Read more
- Reprieve and Mercy Read more
- Four More Months on the Gray List: Pakistan's FATF Challenge Read more
- What ails Pakistan’s Economy? The Problems beyond Coronavirus Read more
- A Model for Coronavirus’ impact on our Economy Read more
- Forecasting the Economic Impact of Coronavirus on Developing Countries: Case of Pakistan Read more
- Getting Real about Real Estate Regulation Read more
- Economic Trends In Pakistan Read more
- A Real Approach to Real Estate Read more
- The Current Account Deficit in Perspective Read more
- Dissecting Circular Debt Read more